The domestic equity market, which is on a record-breaking spree, will focus on macroeconomic data announcements, movement in global stocks and the US Fed minutes to get further direction, analysts said. Trading activity of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) will also innfluence investors.From the domestic macroeconomic front, Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for the manufacturing sector will be released on Monday, and that o,f the services sector on Wednesday. Investors, this week, will keenly watch major global market events, icluding the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, scheduled to be out on Wednesday.
RBI's interest rate decision, quarterly earnings and global cues would be the major driving factors for equity markets this week, analysts said adding that the impact of the Union Budget could linger on this week. Trading activity of foreign investors will also be a key driver for the markets, experts noted. "US and India's manufacturing PMI for January to be released on Monday, will be the key macro data to watch out for.
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Going 'long' is becoming an overcrowded trade on Dalal Street, and any negative trigger could lead to a sharp correction, warn experts. However, given the strong momentum, particularly in IT stocks, the downside could be protected in the immediate term. "With the Nifty50 surging to new life-time highs, the bulls remain in control. Further upsides are likely once the immediate resistance of 21,492 is taken out.
If the index is unable to sustain above 24,500 levels, technically it can then slip to its 200-DMA placed at 23,365 levels.
tailwinds of a remarkable year and handsome investor returns, Indian equities are set for an eventful journey in 2024, with a slew of local and global cues -- varying from interest rates to Lok Sabha polls to geopolitical happenings. Analysts are of the view that the bull run in the domestic equity market will continue, and over the next 3-6 months, the benchmark indices -- Sensex and Nifty -- could climb up to 7 per cent. In 2023, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 11,399.52 points or 18.73 per cent, and the NSE Nifty climbed 3,626.1 points or 20 per cent.
'An eerie similarity with 2019 inflation trajectory could now mean that the RBI and market inflation estimates could go awry.'
From the Sensex basket, Tech Mahindra, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, Larsen & Toubro and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the biggest laggards. Mahindra & Mahindra, Power Grid, Bajaj Finance, IndusInd Bank and Maruti were the major gainers.
'As the markets are expected to remain jittery in the near term, we advise investors to use this opportunity to enter quality largecaps from a long-term perspective.'
The bias for the BSE benchmark index, technical charts suggest, is likely to remain bullish as long as the index holds above 75,600 levels for the rest of the year.
'The choice is clear: We either embrace this transformation and cement our global leadership, or hesitate, lose ground, and fade into irrelevance.'
Market sentiment around the stock has continued to be positive on the back of improving outlook for the US economy and anticipated weakness in the rupee.
Mixed earnings and not so encouraging macroeconomic data dented sentiment, Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking Ltd said. In twin blows to Indian economic revival, higher food prices drove retail inflation to a five-month high of 7.4 per cent, while factory output fell for the first time in 18 months. The second consecutive month of rise in consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to again raise interest rates to tame high prices. In the broader market, BSE Midcap declined 0.73 per cent while smallcap dropped 0.45 per cent.
Global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and the start of the earnings season would be the major drivers for the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Thursday for Eid-Ul-Fitr. Trading activity of foreign investors, rupee-dollar trends and crude oil prices would also guide trends in markets.
'Will President Dissanayake calibrate his foreign policy taking into account India's immediate security concerns? We need to watch.'
Stock markets would be driven by global trends and foreign investors' trading activity in the holiday-shortened week, analysts said adding that key equity indices may face volatile trends amid the monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday. This week markets will have just three trading sessions. Equity markets will remain closed on Monday for Holi and on Friday for Good Friday. "This week will be shorter due to market closure on both Monday for Holi and Friday for Good Friday.
'Unless the government comes up with the rulebook, the technical requirements will not be clear to us.' 'Going by the Act, non-technical provisions can be complied with within six months.' 'But we need up to 24 months for provisions like parental consent.'
Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would largely dictate terms in the equity markets this week amid a lack of major domestic triggers, analysts said. Markets may face near-term consolidation due to elevated valuations, they noted. "While the previous week was predominantly shaped by developments in the US Federal Reserve policy, attention will now shift to the Bank of Japan's policy decision on December 19," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
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'New record for the Nifty50 is only a question of when.'
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The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global cues, macroeconomic data announcements and the ongoing quarterly earnings are the major triggers that will dictate trends in stock markets this week, analysts said. Besides, the trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be tracked. "All eyes are on the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for November 1, particularly due to the multi-year high levels of the US bond yields.
Equity markets would take cues from domestic inflation data announcement, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Tuesday for 'Diwali Balipratipada'. "As we enter a truncated week with Muhurat trading on Sunday, global cues will play a pivotal role in shaping the market direction.
It has mostly been a one-way street for smallcap stocks that have taken it on their chin thus far in February. The Nifty Smallcap 250 index has shed 3.2 per cent in the current month as compared to the 1.8 per cent decline in the Nifty Midcap 100 and the 0.5 per cent drop in the Nifty 50 index, data showed. Technically, the index has slipped below its 20-day moving average (DMA) placed at 14,800 levels on Monday, and is currently testing the 50-DMA, and is placed at 14,278 levels.
According to fund managers, expectations of a 25-basis-point increase in the cash reserve ratio of banks have heightened in the wake of RBI's surprise twin moves to make short-term money dearer as part of its attempts to curb the rupee's volatility.
Stock markets will be largely driven by global trends in the absence of any major domestic triggers this week, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors, global crude oil prices and rupee-dollar movement will also influence market movement, they said. "Anticipating a period of consolidation in the absence of clear global cues, the market's trajectory will likely hinge on the movement of the US bond yields, the dollar index, and crude oil prices, as well as institutional flows.
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors and movement of oil benchmark Brent crude would dictate terms in the domestic markets this week, analysts said. Equity markets, which fell nearly 3 per cent last week, may face volatile trends amid the monthly derivatives expiry on Thursday. "This week marks the September month Futures and Options (F&O) expiry, which is expected to bring about volatility in the market," said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
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Global trends, macroeconomic data, and the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "In the upcoming data-centric week, the focus will be on crucial releases, including inflation data from India and the US. "Indian inflation is expected to rise, while US inflation will remain steady.
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